A Study on the Development of China’s Financial Leasing Industry Based on Principal Component Analysis and ARIMA Model

The sustainable development of China’s financial leasing industry is a growing concern among scholars. This paper analyzes the data from 2008–2021, using dimensions scale, speed, efficiency, structure, and quality. By employing principal component analysis, we construct index analyze reasons for changes in level internal structure index. study finds that scale serves as key factor industry. While contribution value shows fluctuations, values return risk factors remain relatively stable. Using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) prediction model based on establish change coming years. reveals has entered period transformation, where growth rate its dropped. Furthermore, this offers proposals to address increasingly prominent asset-liability maturity mismatch problem, promote business optimization, enhance income factor, facilitate sustainable, higher-quality development.